On the Predictability of Japanese Stock Returns Using Dividend Yield

Essays on Predictability of Stock Returns

This thesis consists of three chapters exploring predictability of stock returns. In the first chapter, I suggest a new approach to analysis of stock return predictability. Instead of relying on predictive regressions, I employ a state space framework. Acknowledging that expected returns and expected dividends are unobservable, I use the Kalman filter technique to extract them from the observed...

The Effect of Dividend Initiations on Stock Returns:

This paper measures the effect of dividend initiation announcements on firms’ stock returns using a propensity score matching approach. Unlike the traditional event study methodology, propensity score matching can reduce the bias in the estimation of dividend initiation effects by controlling for the existence of confounding factors. Consistent with previous studies, the results show that divid...

Dividend Resumptions, Future Profitability and Stock Returns

We present a new approach to examining the dividend signalling hypothesis by investigating dividend resumptions by former payers. Evidence regarding the signalling hypothesis has been mixed to date. In support of previous work, we find that dividend policy is sticky, whereby the achievement of profitability does not necessarily lead to the resumption of dividend payment. We find no evidence of ...

Entropy and Predictability of Stock Market Returns¤

We examine the predictability of stock market returns by employing a new metric entropy measure of dependence with several desirable properties. We compare our results with a number of traditional measures. The metric entropy is capable of detecting nonlinear dependence within the returns series, and is also capable of detecting nonlinear\a±nity" between the returns and their predictions obtain...

Robust Resampling Methods and Stock Returns Predictability